Investment Manager Powered by an Artificial Machine
The Fair Value Gap

Why Many Stock Picks Are Riskier Than They Look

Many stock pick sites call a stock a “buy” because its price moved. But a price drop is not always a discount: if the price is still above what the business is estimated to be worth, there is little room to rise and more room to fall. Here is how to check it, and how IM-AAM does it.

See Today’s List
Many stock pick sitesPick after a price move

A stock that ran up, or just dipped, gets a “buy”.

The riskFair value below the price

Little room to rise, more room to fall.

IM-AAM checksPrice vs. fair value range

Our stocks get a DCF fair value estimate.

The goalA margin of safety

Room between the price and the estimate.

A Risky Pick vs. a Fair Value Gap

Two stocks, two very different places for the price to be.

The risky pick

Price inside the fair value range

CDE · Coeur Mining · NYSE

Fair value $10.00–$16.00Price $13.45
Price (2-year change)
$13.45 (+89%)
Example fair value range
$10.00 – $16.00
Margin of safety
None: price inside the range

After a run of almost 90% in two years, the price sits inside its fair value range and well above the low end. Buying here leaves no margin of safety: if the price falls back toward fair value, you lose money.

A fair value gap

Price below the fair value range

PYPL · PayPal · NASDAQ

Fair value $79.00–$93.00Price $57.02
Price (2-year change)
$57.02 (−30%)
Example fair value range
$79.00 – $93.00
Margin of safety
28% – 39% below the range
Upside to the range
+39% – +63%

Here the price is below even the lowest estimate. That gap is the margin of safety: room for the estimate to be wrong, or for the market to fall, before the price is above fair value.

Illustrative example using public prices from late October 2026 and example fair value ranges. Not a recommendation and not a list of IM-AAM picks. A stock below its fair value can stay there or fall further.

Test the Math: Margin of Safety

Move the sliders to see how buying below an estimated value leaves room for error.

Margin of safety32.9% below value
Upside to the estimated value+49.1%
Price after a −20% drop$45.60 (still below value)

A large gap: the price sits well below the estimated value, which leaves more room if the estimate is too high or the market falls.

A teaching calculator: estimates can be wrong and prices can fall below any estimate.

How IM-AAM Checks a Stock

These four checks sit next to the stocks on our lists.

1

DCF fair value range and label

Discounted cash flow (DCF) is a scientific financial model used by professional analysts. Ours estimates a fair value range for the stocks on our lists and, where available, a label from Strong Buy to Highly Overvalued.

2

The trend on the chart

Each stock’s chart shows its fair value range next to a trend channel with support and resistance, so you can see where the price sits today.

3

Fundamental and technical scores

An FA score sums up the company’s financial health and a TA score sums up the price trend, so one signal never stands alone.

How the FA and TA scores work →
4

A target and the profit to it

Every stock comes with a target selling price and the target profit after fees, which you can change to your own target.

Other Stock Pick Sites vs. IM-AAM

Many stock pick sitesIM-AAM
When a stock is flaggedOften after a big price moveWith its price compared to a fair value range
Fair value checkNot always shownDCF fair value range next to our stocks
Where the price sitsCan be above fair valueStrong Buy and Undervalued mark stocks below it
What you seeOften just a ticker and “buy”Range, label, trend, scores, target
How you payOften a yearly subscriptionNo subscription: pay per stock you unlock

See Which Stocks Are Below Their Fair Value

Free account: see every stock name. Pay only for the stocks you unlock, and see the price before you add it.

Sign Up Free
See how our pricing works →

IM-AAM provides AI-generated stock research for informational purposes only. It is not personalized financial advice. Fair value estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees; prices can rise or fall and you can lose money. IM-AAM is not a registered investment adviser or broker-dealer, does not hold funds and does not execute trades.

Hi 👋
How can we help?